Is Ebola Winning?

Our blog a few weeks ago, How Ebola is Going to Get Your Ass, got it's share of readers, but not many comments.  The theory proposed then was that Ebola would jump from city to city in Africa (there are 50 cities with over a million people) and then spread into the middle east. 

Well, right now that assessment has only about 50% chance of being true.  Right now by looking at this data as we into half time, Ebola is up by a field goal in a very tight and aggressive game.  ONLY 1500 new cases in Sierra Leone and about a 1000 in Liberia in October.  New cases are holding around 400 to 600 per week.  So, it hasn't gone exponential yet.

And, it has not spread to nearby Lagos Nigeria with its 21 million people.  The math just doesn't work for the humans if Ebola goes exponential in such a large population. 

Did I see there is some (unrelated) Ebola in the Congo?