Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Julie's Health not so Good ... Letter to my son



Mike,

I take Julie to the eye doctor tomorrow.  Julie tried to read her email last night and then came up and took some Alleve and went to bed.  She said her head was still hurting when I went to bed a few hours later.  Julie stayed in bed until 3 pm today, afraid if she tries to use her eyes the pain will return.  At first it was just small type, then newspapers, then emails.  Now, she says she sees a hole in the tv screen.  In retrospect, it has been going on for about a month, but at first the symptoms were similar to mine ... threading a needle with thread, etc.

Julie is also clearing her throat more than normal, her balance is not good, and I believe her cognitive abilities have declined some.  The throat clearing was the first symptom of her cancer last summer ... it was cancer in her lungs.

Your box is on the floor, it has been there for two weeks.  I will try to mail it tomorrow.  I have two addresses, update me on the best address ....

Dad

P.S.  I am going to put this note on the blog along with some pictures.  Ashton has taken it personal mission to watch out for Julie.  He spends most of his day at her side watching her every move.
 
Ashton feeling a little down, below ...

Thursday, February 19, 2009

The American Consumer

The American consumer (AC) has kept the world economy going for decades.  However, starting about ten years ago, the consumer kept the world going by using credit. The credit has run out, the world economy has collasped.

We are still taking actions to try to revive the AC.  He is ill, perhaps terminal.  He will never pull the world economy by his coat-tails.  Unless.  Unless, we find away to pay the AC, who is also the AW (the american worker), more money or taxing him less.  This is complicated by the fact that 6 billion workers are all fighting for a job and an improved life.  Those on the bottom are naturally more motivated than us fat cats at the top.  The American Worker, the biggest of fat cats, is possibly going the way of the dinosaur.  Are the corporate VP's going to take less money to give the AW / AC more of the take?  Are all the governments going to tax less to allow the AW / AC to resume his piggish ways?  Are the rest of the WW (world workers) going to roll over and quit trying.  Are more dinosuars going to die to increase the amount of cheap energy (oil)?  Are we going to get smart enough in America to use nuclear energy and reduce the cost of our energy to make it easier on the AW.   I don't think so.  I think the AW, and hence, the AC is screwed.  And for awhile the world will be screwed until we get tv's in all the Chinese and Indian homes and create the new super consumer.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Note from and to My Son

hey dad -so i read the blogs.. actually before you sent your reply

you sound sad... which seems appropriate.  time are getting tough.  i was just talking to a girl that lost both roomates because they cant find work, and she doesnt make enough to pay the rent herself.. one of many stories i have been hearing lately.  everyone seems frazzled -including me -though i am more frazzled by everyone being frazzled than my own siutation.  i am not sure what i should be doing or thinking about at this point.  i stopped smoking pot about a month ago to help, but clarity isn't exactly what i am getting out of it.  i find myself wanting to drink more.  cookies are nice too. 

there are good things happening for me, but the shadows are all obscuring their brilliance.  i am getting closer to actually being able to screen print some stuff -which hopefully i can show you soon.  i am setting up a system to grow more worms and soldier fly larvae (big maggots) as an alternative to grain for chicken feed.  a few other things. 

keep me updated as much as you can- either by continuing on the blog or whatever..  thanks for the offer to come live up there with you -ill keep that in mind.  we are trying to be careful and not actually go broke.  being careful doesnt mean we dont fall though -especially if the ground is shaking.







Mike,

I will be okay.  Just bumped out at the moment.   Hard not to be.

There are market fundamentals behind all of this recession.  But, capitalism is also affected by emotion.  Unbridled  optimism and greed got us into this mess, and pessimism and fear will keep in the mess.  Our job as individuals is to keep the faith and spread a positive outlook.   This is a storm that we have to weather.  

There is a huge correction going on in the world.  The U.S. relative position is declining and resources are being redistributed.  But we still have a substantial advantage with our entrepreneurial culture.  What is very dangerous to our future well being is the attitude that government can solve our problems for us.  It can't.  Instead of doing stuff for us, it has to encourage and enable us move on our own.  Like a parent.  The current attitude that the government can bail us out is a very dangerous path.  The republicans had the torch and they let it go out.  The War undid them.  It became an obsession and they let the rest of the world and our country go down the tube.  The democrats are doing more of what got us in trouble in the first place, excess spending, cheap money, and a belief in itself instead of its people. 

A price will have to be paid for our debts.  I suspect it will come in the form of our dollar becoming de-valuated.  Hyper inflation.   Well this is not helping my state of mind.  

more later, 

dad

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Spending our Way to Prosperity

Basics.  I learned long ago that I can do 95% of my job by just understanding the basics of science.  I am a high level knowledge worker, who is above average in capabilities.  Recent graduates often find that their new jobs do not challenge them.  However, this generality does not apply to politicians.  They have one overriding principal, get re-elected.  Promise great things, even things they can't deliver, and when they fail, make bigger promises.

What got the U.S. into the current fix.  Cheap money, the housing bubble, etc., we all know the standard lines.  Let me get down to the real basics: mis-allocation of  resources.  We borrowed and spent trillions of dollars to support an unsustainable life style.  And capitalism and market forces, like it or not, will punish those mis-allocate resources.  Loaning money to someone who can not pay it back is a mis-allocation, i.e., homes, cars, credit cards.  Starting a war we can't afford, and probably can't win by almost any standard, is a mis-allocation.  But there is something even more fundamental going on here.

Did you know last year that Chinese citizens bought more cars than United States citizens?  And, if the Chinese had of been challenging their resources more into their people, instead of supporting our government, the gap in cars, homes, etc. would have been even bigger.  China is the biggest producer of steel, concrete, and many other commodities used to furnish, house, and provide jobs for its people.  China starts up one new coal-fired power plant every week.

Now lets look to the Middle East.  Oil.  Oil equals wealth transfer.  Opulent structures such as ski slopes in a dessert that runs 120 to 140F in the summer.  New cities build by expanding the land into the ocean.  This by any sane measure is a mis-allocation for the human race. Where did this wealth come from?  Well, the number contributor on a per person basis is the United States.  This is where you dollars are being allocated, or should I say mis-allocated.  Will market forces punish this mis-allocation. Feel the pain the United States right now, that is the punishment.

Now our government has just come along a committed to spend a couple of trillion dollars in addition to two wars, an under funded social security system, and enormous interest payments on our debt.  The question is, how much of this money is a mis-allocation.

Do you know that in the past Argentina, Spain, France, England, China, Rome, etc., were all rich countries at one time.  But things changed, the world moved on and the United States got its turn at the top.  But, that is all it is.  It is not something destined to be by the gods for all time.  There is no such thing as a bank, or government that is too big to fail.  The big and the mighty, like the dinosaurs, stick around for awhile based on reputation, past successes, credit, etc.   Everything I see says to me that America is in economic decline.

There are a lot of drivers for our decline, but at a basic level is that we are not producing enough goods and services to pay for our life style.  And, what is the number one thing that we are buying on credit -- energy.  Energy is fundamental to our lifestyle.  Our lifestyle was built on cheap energy.  The day of cheap energy is over.  We are getting a brief reprieve since a person (country) laying on the ground (recession/depression) does not consume as much energy.

Why is energy fundamental.  Because with enough energy, we are now smart enough to make anything: crops, steel, copper, concrete, aluminum, cars, etc.  Sure as ore grades decline, it takes more energy to make copper, steel, etc., but given enough energy we are smart enough to make, to extract from our planet, a living.  This may not always be true, for instance, we may one day over-fish our oceans and destroy our ecology to the point that we can make all we need for seven billion people,  but my opinion is that we are not quite to the tipping point --- yet.  Today, energy is still king.

Whoever has affordable energy resources moving forward will prosper, those that don't will not.  The United States is already one of the most energy efficient countries if you measure it on a measure it against our GNP.  In short, we are efficient at converting raw materials into products.  And we will get better, its in our genes.  So what is the problem.  We consume too many products (translate too much energy) per person.  More than our share based on the energy resources that we have, that the world has.

So out of the $2 trillion we are spending on bailing out our economy and banks, how much is going to alternative energy.  $30 billion dollars.  You might as well go out into your front yard and piss on the ground, that will help us get more energy just as much as $30 billion dollars.  We spend $2 to $3 billion a week on Iraq, not to mention Afganastran  and our general military spending.

Do you realize that France, that we like to make fun of all the time, is much better positioned that the United States with regard to energy.  They make something like 70% of their electricity from nuclear power.  Their mass transit system makes Americans look like idiots.  Our fastest trains go about 100 mph.  World standard is 200 miles per hour.  Take a guess at how much more efficient a train is than a plane in moving people. My best guess is that a train is about 10 times as efficient as a plane in moving people.  I didn't see how much money we are planning on dealing with mass transit, but I suspect it less than the dollars we are spending, and will spend, on pumping up the big three (little three) auto companies.  Again, completely out of touch on what is going on at the global scale.

I have always aliened my opinions with mother nature, market forces, and other global forces (such as globalization) since in the end they always prevail against our feeble efforts as humans.  There are huge drivers, such as the end of cheap energy, that shape our lives.  We either recognize those changes and make adjustments or in the end we are ground up like rocks in front of a glacier.

Blog Archive