Energy

Energy is at the heart of all we do. With it we can do anything, without it, we can't do much but die. We have been lucky until now. It is not so tough sticking a pipe in the ground and either pumping or letting oil come to the surface. Oil refining is not that tough either. Mostly just distillation. Sulfur makes it harder, but not that much harder.

How do we use energy. For heat, for light, to do work, and to travel. Our way of life in the U.S. was built on cheap energy. We are at the end of this period. Cheap energy is history.

All the new forms of energy are more expensive. That's the main reason we are not yet using them, with one exception. Nuclear energy. And we are afraid of the risks. The risks will look better after we realize the risks to our way of life of not having cheap energy. Coal, our last ace in the hole, will be penalized by CO2 taxes. Global warming, that is another issue, but so far we are not having balanced discussions on that subject yet; we will discuss another day. But, bottom line, no more cheap energy.

Good news is that most of us could work from home, or from video centers near our house -- even with today's technologies. And these will get even cheaper via Moore's law. Socially we seem to google at Sally at the water fountain however, not just talk to her on the tube / video. Most work places are not very efficient, and most meetings are not well planned. Perhaps, there is even room to improve things when it is big deal to come in for a meeting. But, as we evolve in this direction, this should make a significant impact on energy requirements. As we build new homes close to our work this should help.

Mass transit could be huge, but we are so spoiled, and that is the only word for it, that this will not take off until the PAIN of expensive energy takes it toil. Anyway, not in my lifetime.

Where does that leave us. With a declining standard of living, best I can figure. Our politicians are too worried out being complete idiots to be as smart as Brazil and seek energy independence. We would rather go to Mars that solve something as fundamental as energy.

Ultimately, it will be an energy that is transported by electricity. Even hydrogen will turn out to just be a way of transporting electricity, as in a fuel cell. I think the ultimate answer will be a mirad of competing technologies, each contributing to the grid. Wind, solar, nuclear, coal with CO2 sequestering, and hydro will all contribute. Power will become more distributed and more shared. Batteries and other means of saving energy or transferring it from one time period to another will be valuable.

The government needs to play a roll to promote new technologies, but this is tricky. Promoting something can increase the scale of production and reduce the costs, it also can just keep a dog, a dead one, alive a lot longer. The reserve psychology of making fossil fuels more expensive, say with CO2 taxes, would probably work best. That makes all other energy forms, not making CO2, or making less CO2, more competitive. Then the market can select which is better instead of Jehovah Bush or Hillary Witch, etc. But, our politicians for all their evils don't have enough courage to consider the impact of anything further away than the next election, so don't hold your breath and expect them to be as smart as Brazil. Even Cuba is at least smart enough to suck up to Venezuela.

But, I do have a lot of faith in the resourcefulness of the American people and American business to succeed even when their government goes in the opposite direction to what makes sense. I guess it is up to each of us.