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There is Never, Ever,
Going to Be Enough Jobs
Robert R. Odle, Ph.D.
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The Current Modus Operandus is Insane....
More Americans are unemployed or underemployed than ever before, see labor participation rate. And yet, the Americans that are working are putting in longer hours, working harder and are under more stress. Company profits are great. Company coffers are full of cash, $1 billion in Apple alone. Poverty levels in America are at an all time high. Trillions of dollars in college and war debts. More super-rich every day. The haves and the have-nots.
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There is never-ever going to be enough jobs again….
It is sad but true, there is never-ever going to be enough jobs again. Good jobs are going to be even more scarce. And it is never going to get better. In the U.S. there are two major causes for job destruction:1) automation (computers/robots/artificial intelligence) and 2) outsourcing. This job destruction is going to go at an geometric rate as computing power increases whereas economic growth is going to be linear and small. Good jobs, professional jobs, are now beginning to disappear and that will continue at an accelerating rate. The trends are already obvious.
What are our options
There are two general options: 1) We can become a society of haves and have-nots. This is already happening and it is going to get much worse. Imagine a jungle of humanity and the Have’s living in a fortified city. 2) we can learn to share starting with jobs and education.
Option #1 The Haves and the Have Nots
Our cultural biases has already lead us to Option #1 and we will probably continue on this route until some type of cultural breakdown. We believe a man should not eat unless he works. This option is followed because WE believe people are lazy and don’t want to work. We ignore the data that there is not enough jobs now and that there will less jobs in the future. So we continue to emphasis the fallibility of the poor and ignore the lack of opportunity. The Option we have taken does not seem very compassionate.
Option #2 Sharing the Wealth
Option #2 takes a new vision. In this vision, improved efficiency from technology leads to more leisure time, production is only limited by the corresponding needs of humanity, and work becomes a privilege. In this option, we share work and enjoy our leisure. We work 25 to 30 hours a week, if we are of the privileged. As time progresses, in this option those that work pay for the privilege. The rest of humanity develops their creativity and their ability to enjoy life. Those without the privilege of work learn to volunteer for their fellow man, help developing countries evolve into this new world of working to contribute instead of working to have more stuff.
Is this possible?
First, most business is not limited by capacity, they are limited by customers. As the employed decreases the number of customers decrease. Its a downward spiral, a flaw in capitalism that only maximizes wealth for the shareholder. As an example, I saw a 33 acre wallboard plant under roof in Florida that had 18 workers including bosses, secretaries, and three shifts. The only workers there monitored the computers and handled maintenance problems when the computer alerted them. At the back end, truckload after truckload of wall board went off to Home Depo, etc. Thats the future. You need not apply for work here.
Extreme Wealth is More Problematic
This new vision of the world, where people share work, wealth and education with all, will probably not work when the super-rich, the top 10% own 80% of the wealth in America. Progressive taxation on all forms of income, including capital gains, will be necessary to usher in this new world. Countries like Denmark and Australia, and many of the Scandinavian countries have many of the traits of this new vision of sharing.
Investment in Infrastructure
Of course, even to share wealth, jobs, and education there needs to be considerable investment in infrastructure (roads, bridges, high speed internet, colleges, job training, etc.) to keep the U.S. competitive internationally. China has given us a good example of how to do this in lifting 600 million out of poverty.
Cultural Changes Required
What must happen to move into this new world? One, we must accept the obvious, there are never going to be enough work. There will be relatively good and bad times, but unless someone can slow automation of work, the overall trend seems inevitable. For example, as baby boomers get out of the work force, there will be a temporary shortage of workers, easily filled by relaxing immigration restrictions, but man’s creative genius will continue to automate and reduce the need for human work.
A fraction of all workforce can with the help of technology produce all the good and services needed by all of humanity. The services and skills of most people will not be required to maintain a good quality of living for all. This is the new reality. It is already here but we continue to work under old cultural norms that are not relevant, in fact, they are counter productive.
Do I expect many to buy this story. Nope. Very few. As a process engineer I never cared who agreed with me if I was on the side of mother nature (gods of chemistry and physics). Likewise here, the evidence is clear that we are in a paradigm shift where are old values and culture have missed major changes in the world and in this country. And sadly, holding on to the old popular vision is keeping us in the current insanity … the rich are really enjoying our confusion.
Future Discussions …
Side Benefits/Traits of this New World
- How would a minimum stipend impact America?
- What would be the impact of paying all workers a living wage?
- How can we convert our medicine into one that promotes health instead of treating illness.
- How do we will learn to coach more, to encourage out fellow traveler and judge less.
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