Do Americans Share the Responsibility for the Missing Students in Mexico by Robert R. Odle, Ph.D.

Protesting Students Missing

Forty three students in Mexico, scholars from rural Mexico, staged a protest against corruption in their county of Guerrero more than a month ago.  They have not been seen since. Their families and the country mourns as we should.  Even more, do we as Americans share part of the responsibility for their deaths. 

Students handed to Drug Cartels by the Police

The tragedy started in Iguala Mexico when students were on their way to protest at a meeting where the Mayor's wife was speaking. They were detained by the police and then turned over to the drug cartels and reportedly burned alive.  That's the rumor, their bodies have not been found. The Mexican Federal government sent the military to secure the town.  The police chief, the mayor and his wife, who has a brother who is a general in the drug cartel, have gone missing, reportedly on the run from the federal police / military.  The governor of Guerrero stepped down after he initially took no action. 

Widespread Student Protests and Mass Graves

Student protests across Mexico are demanding justice. We as Americans should be demanding justice as well and accepting our role in the crime. Like Honduras a few months ago, they should be looking North across the border.

Eleven mass graves have been found, containing 38 sets of human remains, but none of them contained the students. Eleven mass graves, are you kidding me.  That is a story in its own right.  A new mass grave in Cocula, a town 10 miles from where the students were taken into custody by the police is being tested to see if it is filled with the student bodies. About 22,000 people have disappeared since the government started cracking down on the drug cartels in 2006.

Police, Mayor and Drug Cartels - Partners in Crime

The mayor reportedly was paid several hundred thousand dollars each month to look the other way as the drug cartel made opium paste to feed the U.S. heroin market. They had turned to heroin as the pot market in the U.S. declined because of alternate suppliers (legalized states) and more effective policing of the borders and countryside for the relatively bulky, but less-lethal pot shipments. 

Our War on Drugs & Easy Access to Guns in U.S.

How could our War on Drugs (or A War on Black People Who Do Drugs) and our insane gun policies contribute to the students' deaths? Consider our drug and gun culture and imagine the ripple effects in Mexico:

1. First, it is no secret that the U.S. supplies the market for the drugs from Mexico and hence the billions of dollars to fund the militarization of the drug cartels. 
2. Second, you might be surprised that the easiest place for the Drug Cartel to buy weapons is from the U.S. Thank the NRA (Myth#27 Assault Weapons are Different From Machine Guns).
3. Our treatment of a disease (drug addiction is like alcoholism, duh.) as a crime perpetuates the cycle, it helps to create the market.  And those wanting out of the drug culture who are seeking help are reluctant to seek help for fear of being criminalized.  Seventeen states have passed Good Samaritan laws which allows and furnishes first responders with naloxone, a heroine antidote  And most states that have passed the Good Samaritan laws do not prosecute individuals who seek help during an overdose.  It is a small step toward treating addiction as a disease affecting real people who need help. Thirty six states don't furnish first responders with naloxone and instead they may arrest the person if he doesn't die -- and so the disease continues among the survivors.
4. Money is wasted waging a long ineffective war against people with a disease.  Incarcerating young adults, the biggest users,  instead of providing treatment centers and intensive life therapy continues the drug culture.  In prison they get "therapy" from those that not only do drugs but are real criminals doing heavy duty crimes. 
5. We are not being a responsible country by not working with other countries affected by our policies. We should even ask their opinion on what needs to be done and listen.*
6. By concentrating on "illegal drugs" and punishment we miss out on the real drug story in America. A study in 2013 said 4 out of 5 people were addicted to prescription pain killers before turning to heroin. They turn to street drugs including heroin  when they can no longer get their prescription or can no longer afford it.   There were about 17,000 deaths a year from drugs such as morphine and oxycodone in 2010 and in comparison only 3000 from heroin.                                                                                      So why isn't there A War on Doctors That Over Prescribe?  Or, a War on Our Medical System that Acts as if a Pill Can Fix Anything.  Perhaps if we had a culture that had a little compassion, prescription addicts could get help along with the street addicts.

Students Die From Our Inconsistent and Stupid Drug Policy

So, our students in Mexico are a victim not only of the corruption in their own country, but the ineffective and stupid policies in this country (the definition of stupid is to keep doing the same thing in the same situation and expecting a different result ... the drug war is essentially the same for 40 years ... really?).  Until we start addressing drug usage as a disease and listening to the stories behind the addiction, there is no hope for our young people with the disease or the victims in Mexico (and many other countries).  We are at the epicenter of the addiction crisis and the ripples effects millions here and aboard. Have we learned anything after 40 years? 

If we want to be good moral people, good world citizens, we will start seeing drug addicts as our children in need of help and understanding.   






*There was a High Profile Panel in 2011 which included former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and past Presidents of Mexico, Brazil and Columbia that recommended our government try new ways of legalizing and regulating drugs, especially pot, as a way to deny profits to drug cartels.  Former President of Columbia, President Cesar Gaviria, said "when you have 40 years of a policy that is not bringing results, you have to ask if its time to change it." (Not our government, something doesn't have to work to keep doing it.  Stupidity.) They recommended finding ways to end "the criminalization, marginalization and stigmatization of people who use drugs but do no harm to others."

Are the Republicans or Cubans Right About Ebola? by Robert R. Odle, Ph.D.

How do we measure greatness, goodness, or compassion.  Perhaps we can get some idea of who has these traits in abundance by their actions, by who steps up to the plate when the fellow humans are in dire straits.

Does Donald Trump, Chris Christi and Florida Gov. Rick Scott have the right response to Ebola, or does Cuba?  Of course, we all know that Cuba is sending the most doctors and health care workers to the Ebola infected countries of any country in the world.  They consider it the humane thing to do.  They are also training more health care workers and have a long line of volunteers ready to go to West Africa.  Yea, the same country that we have an embargo against for the last 50 years because they are "evil".  

Trump believes there should be a travel ban, no one should be able to fly from the infected countries into the U.S.  How exactly you stop someone from taking multiple stops before arriving at an obscure U.S. airport and then lying about their travel history, I'm not sure.  Gov. Christi wants all travelers from those areas quarantined for 21 days whether they are showing symptoms or not.  Gov Rick Scott wants patients monitored twice daily for 21 days by his health department and "high risk" patients quarantined.

The first nurse returning from helping Ebola patients that flew into Newark yesterday was put in a tent for 21 days of isolation.  The nurse, Kaci Hickox says she feels like a criminal and a prisoner. Well, she is a prisoner even though she shows no symptoms.  I'm guessing none of the other returning health workers will fly into Newark. Dr. Spencer who returned from the ebola incubator countries to New York last week,  jogged and rode the subway apparently while ill and contagious represents the other extreme in how to deal with those returning from the ebola incubator countries.

So what question are the Cubans asking?  They are asking how do we best help our fellow man. Their focus is beyond their own borders. The Republican governors are asking how do we Americans best protect our asses (and perhaps what is the safest political route to protect their own asses).  

It comes down to the fundamental question, do we want to be a good country, a good citizen in this world, or do we only care about how our actions affect ourselves.  More often these days we do the latter.  However, this view of ourselves as being the only ones that matter in the universe could have some dire consequences with ebola, as discussed previously.

I'm not advocating any particular solution for those medical workers returning from the ebola incubator countries.  But what I am advocating is considering the consequences of our policies on more than just our safety, but on the well being of humanity as a whole.  Governor Scott in Florida seems to be the closest to getting a balanced response although I think there is plenty of room for improvement in his policy.  Trump is an elitist asshole in my opinion. Assuming Trump would risk his health for someone else (unlikely I admit), but if he caught ebola I suspect he would use his money to travel anywhere he wanted to get treatment.  Which is another way of saying Trump represents the view of many Americans, because we have more money we are more valuable as humans. Sadly, many of our policies are developed with that as a core assumption.

How Ebola is Going to Get Your Ass

 A month ago I wrote Ebola, should we be scared?  I was afraid back then that Ebola might come to our country via air travel.  Well, it happened, and our country has developed a fear that Ebola is going to spread across our country starting with a few infected people arriving via planes. Obviously, possible, but cases that arrive this way are unlikely to overwhelm our medical capabilities. I was afraid of this a month ago, but I now realize my fear was focused on the wrong scenario.

 So, let's look at Africa and see how it is most likely to spread.  First, you many not realize that Africa has over 50 cities that have a million or more people.  Let that settle in as you look at some of them on this map:

Now another view of the major metropolitan areas in Africa.  The bigger the circle, the larger the population it represents:

Notice that Liberia, the country with 4000 plus Ebola cases by October is a small dot on this map with regard to population.  To get a flavor of what it is like in Liberia watch this video if you are up for it ... Ambulance Work In Liberia Isa Busy and Lonely Business.  Sierra Leone with 3000+ cases is a little bit bigger dot and Guinea with  1500 plus cases is even a little bigger dot of population in the map above.  Then a little further away, there's the big population center, Lagos in Nigeria.

In July a single person from Liberia infected 20 people via the airport in Lagos.  Nigeria jumped on it with both feet, isolating everyone, closing schools, etc.  Nineteen thousand homes were visited and temperatures taken. They have not had a single case since then, that they know of.  And they spent millions on educating the public. So, they successfully stopped Ebola spreading from ONE person.

 In the Ambulance Worker Video above, you will see angry people near panic and a lot of hopelessness from everyone.  Imagine in December when there are 10,000 new cases a week in our three small incubator countries.  What are they going to do?  Consider what has happened in Syria, where millions have fled across the border into Turkey and surrounding countries because of the threat of ISIS and the Syrian government -- in short, people flee to escape death.  How will those in infected countries respond when they fear death from ebola?

Ebola Refuges

I think the mathematical model for Ebola spreading can be formulated by simply asking what do people do when they are afraid they are going to die:  fight, flight, or freeze.  The eight health workers killed in Guinea over Ebola fears exhibited the first typical reaction, fight.  They blamed the health workers for bringing Ebola into their country, and as irrational as it is, the workers were killed. As the number of cases double every two or three weeks, the next reaction will be flight.  This is not complicated stuff.  Where will they flee is the only question. 

Overland Routes of Escape

The route of escape for most people in our Ebola incubator countries will be into Nigeria.  We are not talking about one person; 'we are talking about hundred of thousands of people, perhaps millions of people fleeing into the most populated city in Africa where 21 million people live.  Then just start connecting the dots as the Ebola spreads city by city toward Egypt, then the Middle East, Turkey, Pakistan,  Europe, across India to China.  

Across the Sea   

The other way to flee these countries is from the many seaports along the African coast.  While the number of refuges leaving by this mode of travel will only represent a few percent of the whole, they in theory can go anywhere.  The most likely place will be to other neighboring seaports such as Morocco to the north or Johannesburg to the South. But, some of them will make it to densely populated areas of South America, or the Caribbeans, or Mexico.  And again, just start connecting the dots from one densely populated city to the next.

  Panic Mode

As Ebola spreads from one country to the next across the globe, the number of cases increasing exponentially, panic will come faster as the fear outruns the reality.  I can imagine closed borders from one country to the next, none of it effective, as countries try to draw lines in the sand against a VIRUS.  And, what are the chances with millions of cases that the Ebola virus will not mutate at least once.  Who knows what that means, but it is probably not good news.

Isolating Ebola Victims

Ebola multiplies exponentially.  The supply of beds and doctors is limited. (See Malthus theory for population growth versus food supply, same mathematics.) What the math tells you is this: if you get behind on the supply of doctors and medical supplies you never catch up.  It seems clear to me that this has already happened. I don't see us starting to ship beds and health workers into Nigeria and other big cities near the incubator states ... if we really wanted to get ahead of the virus. 

We are not going to stop Ebola with the current strategy of isolating those that are sick and following all the people they have come in contact with, the math doesn't work.  In the U.S., the one person that came into U.S. with Ebola was in contact with more than 70 people.  Now imagine tracking 5000 people with the number doubling every two weeks.  Now imagine you're in a country with limited number of phone or modern communications.  I'm sorry, we are kidding ourselves that we are going to stop Ebola based on the method proposed by CDC. I suspect, THEY are afraid to tell us the obvious, we are not stopping the Ebola virus with Plan A.  They built their strategy based on stopping ebola in rural areas of Africa. They are using a model that does not work with Ebola inside of major metropolitan areas.

Plan B Make it to the Moon or Perish: Vaccine for Ebola

The mathematics say to me that the only humane way to stop Ebola is to develop a vaccine and distribute it ahead of the current wave of the Ebola typhoon.  Of course, it is already too late for millions of people that are going to die from Ebola.  But, being selfish, we probably have a year or so before the Ebola typhoon rolls up on our southern border.  That is probably enough time to create and test a virus and gear up production.  But, that is only if we pour a huge amount of money into it -- more or less a blank checkbook by the U.S. , China and European governments to scientists around the world.

In addition, we will have to put non-constructive competition between humans aside and realize it is humanity against a virus.  It sounds a little science fiction doesn't it?  And yet, look at the projections below for Ebola in the incubator countries alone:
  

And yes, that is a million cases by next summer.  And not shown, are 10 million cases by the end of the summer.  Of course, this is the scenario if nothing is done or if the effort is feeble versus the need.  And so far, our words have waxed long, our actions have been small and way behind the curve with regard to need.  These models all assume that Ebola radiates outward from a central core instead of being simultaneously seeded among all of humanity.  When people start fleeing the Ebola epidemic, it is possible the rate will increase - we don't know what fear will do to the rate at which it spreads.

Our Brother's Keeper

We posted a story about being a good country, a good citizen of the world last week.  I had hoped the Ebola epidemic in Africa would bring out the GOOD in us and that we would rise to the occasion with an open checkbook and an open heart.  But, it is not the US dying, and they are black and poor, and backward.  We act as if their lives are not as important as ours.  Instead we say,  let us close our borders and just let them die over there.  Besides being incredibly heartless, it is stupid and ineffective to think so SMALL and PETTY, especially if the model I am proposing is correct.

We have one chance to get this right.  We either think beyond ourselves or we will wake up with the wolf pounding down our door.  (I am going to work on the math and get back to you.)

The Good Country Index

A man named Simon Anholt has put together an index that shows how much good a country does outside of its own borders, a good country index.  I assume the question being asked is "how good a citizen is our country on a world stage?"

How do you see our country.  Do you think we do our share on the world stage? Would it surprise you that we do not do well?  Well, what about all those wars we fight.  Perhaps others do not consider that helping the world.  What about all the military equipment we send all over the world, surely that help is not being ignored by the rest of the world.

Well, it isn't too bad, the U.S. came out 21st in the world.  Obviously, much lower than our potential, but not bad considering much of our effort goes into our military industrial complex.  They rate countries on five different standards.  One of them is International Peace and Security.   Remember, this is not what we do for ourselves in this area, but what we do for others.  Also, it is not our opinion of ourselves, but the world's opinion of us.  We come in a 114th in the world on the International Peace and Security.   There are five subcategories under this:

• Peace Keeping Troops, where we are average.
• Dues in Arrears for Peace Keeping Efforts - where we are above average.
• International Violent Conflict - we get a very low grade on that one
• Arms Exporting - failing grade
• Internet Security - failing grade

Just because we are always in a war and sell and give weapons to everyone else, that doesn't mean we are interested in the peaceful resolution of problems.  I mean someone has to fight the wars and sell the wars, don't they.  As you can see, being a good country turns out to be hard for a country who spends more money on its Industrial Military Complex than most of the countries in the world put together and believes that it is its job to control the world.  I had a mother in law like that once.  That didn't have a happy ending either. 

It is funny that we think we are the greatest country in the world, it is hard to imagine that others don't see us the same way.  My friends in Peru used to tell me, we give you that America knows how to make money and war, but we do not think they know how to live life. My Australian friends when I would start bragging about America would tell me, we don't want to be America, we want to be a kinder America.  

Perhaps if we want to regain the idea of being the best country in the world, we need to start considering how our actions impact the world.  How does our drug and immigration policy impact Latin America?  How does our lack of leadership in global warming impact the world?  How will our lack luster response on the ebola virus impact the world?  How does Guantanamo Bay imprisonment without due representation impact justice in the world?  How does our treatment of the children immigrating from Honduras affect future generations in Honduras?

Or, we can pretend that we are just an island in the world, that we do not live in a globalized world, that we don't need or care about anyone else and that cooperation has no value or virtue. We can continue to look inward and not notice that our actions to others affects not only them but ourselves.  If I was a Jesus people, I would say we are our brother's keepers to all inhabitants of this world.  But, it is easier to keep thinking small.

What kind of country do you want to live in?

Our Health System (Life Style?) is Less Effective in Producing Wellness Than Most

The above data says the U.S. spends more of its money on healthcare than anyone other country does. 

 So, we must be the healthiest right?  

Hmmm.  Amazing it seems that many people live longer than us.  People in Cuba live as long as us.  Japan, Norway, Iceland, Costa Rica, Malta, New Zealand, etc. spend half the money and live longer. 

Well, I am sure we have less babies dies, who cares about how long we live:

Well, there are three countries where more babies die than the U.S.  Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, we are better than you.  Norway has half as many baby deaths as than we do.  So what is wrong.  Let's see who is fatter.

Well, we win we are the most fat. Why I wonder are we fat?

We almost win.  I bet by 2014 we eat more sugar than anyone else. How do we do this, eat so much sugar.

Wow.  We drink a lot of sodas that have a lot of sugar in them.

Let's summarize.  We spend more money on healthcare than anyone else but we die sooner including our babies during birth.  We are fat and drink a lot of sodas.  So, why were we so proud of the American Medical System?  Why are we so against changes brought about by Obamacare.  It is not like we have a stellar system if based on performance for dollar spent.

We are always so proud believing America is the best.   I am on a quest to figure out the part of American life that is better than the rest of the people on the planet - since we continue to believe it.  My mom used to say that if you have your health you are wealthy.  So, I guess America is not so wealthy compared to most developed countries around the world.  Does that surprise you?

Any ideas on what areas of American life that is better than most of the developed countries in the world?  We believe it, so it must be true.

The Collapse of the Dollar, the Rise of the RMB-Gold-Currency

A vortex of debt ... military overspending, health care, school loans .... fear

Is our country near bankruptcy?  There are some disturbing things going on.  Ben Bernanke is resigning.  The Fed’s Debt to Asset ratio is 77.  They are maxed out.  They have taken on a tremendous level of debt in trying to get the U.S. Economy moving.  And yet, it is barely off the ground. Our stock market versus GDP is at an all time high.  The percentage of the our workforce that is employed, 64%., is at an all time low.  50 million people are on food stamps.  That is not a thriving economy.

Income inequality in the U.S. is about  equal to China’s.  Their is improving, ours is getting worse.  And yet, China is struggling too.  China’s currency is declining, and they are propping up their currency by buying U.S. treasuries.  They are being sneaky about it.  We don’t like them propping up their currency (RMB) even if it helps keep our interest rates low, per Obama?   They have been buying treasures through a deal they worked out with Belgium to be the front person.  Except, when China’s buying slowed this summer Belgium became the the third biggest buyer in the world.  Duuu.   It fooled no one, but perhaps it was just a diversionary tactic.   

There are rumors that there are thousands of skyrise apartments and office buildings in China that have been built and never occupied.  Why, because the money in China is increasingly moving to the rich through corruption and political misallocation of money.  Unlike in the U.S. where we just move it legally from corporations directly to the rich and pay workers less each year.  Thanks to PAC’s we can count on this to continue until we have too few consumers to support our working class.  Nevermind, we are already there … a downward spiral.

So, is China and the U.S. going down the tube together.  Well, never underestimate the China not to have a Plan B and long term plan.  Clue number one, China just signed a $400 billion plan for Russia to deliver it energy for 25 years.  Look for some major pipelines and rail construction to make this happen.  Hint number two, China is amassing the largest supply of gold in the history of the world.  First, they are the biggest producer of gold in the world and they keep it all to themselves.  Also, they are the biggest buyer of gold in the world, slow and steady for decades.  In the last few months, they are accelerating purchases.    So, what does China and Russia both want?  How does the U.S. control much of the world … hint the U.S. dollar being the world currency is HUGELY ENABLING.  (is that good English?)

Who is the biggest energy exporter in the world? Answer Russia.  Number two, the Saudi’s.   Who started pricing oil in U.S. dollars.  Remember the gasoline shortage in the 70’s.  We made a deal with Saudi Arabia to protect their asses if they priced oil in U.S. dollars.  We essentially went from backing our dollars with gold to backing them with black gold.  Sweet deal for us.  Not too bad a deal for the Saudi Royal Family who gets protection and a decent price for their oil and a steady customer than guzzles energy, us.  But, what has changed?  Fracturing.  The U.S. is moving in the direction of energy independence.  I personally don’t think we are smart enough to put policies in place to make it happen, but we are for now moving in the right direction anyway.

So, where is all this leading.  It seems obvious to me.  China is going to back their currency with gold and perhaps oil also.  How?  A three way deal with China, Russia and the Saudi’s.  If the Saudi’s and Russia agree to price oil in China’s currency, the RMB (Renminbi), its a done deal.  And then China can sweeten the deal by backing their currency with gold.  All the pieces are in place to make it happen.  China and Russia’s ambition in this matter are no secret.  Saudi’s displeasure with the U.S. in Iraq and with U.S.'s biased position in the Israeli / Palestinian conflict is well documented.  The decline in the Royal Family’s prosperity might encourage a lucrative deal with China.  

So when this happens .. what happens to the U.S. dollar.?  The days of the U.S. being able to print money to prime our economy are gone.  Print more money and there will be a quicker decline of the dollar.  We will depend on our Congress to manage our fiscal policy.  Fat chance of that happening with PAC’s and lobbyists running our government.  The Federal Reserve, well they are broke.  Some have even predicted a collapse of the U.S. economy.  I think that is probably not probable, but not impossible.  A major recession/depression for sure if the U.S. loses its role as the world currency.  

The other possible player in all this… the IMF is the only one that has a good balance sheet of the major players.  China could encourage them to start a world currency backed by China’s gold.  I’m still trying to figure out that angle, but it is just a detail on how the U.S. currency losses out to a new world currency.  

What signs will we see that a deal between China, Russia and Saudi Arbia to price oil in RMB’s is imminent.  The price of gold will take off as China buys as much as it can in the final hours and the rest of the world wakes up to their plan.  I am betting all the current gold ETF;s  (paper gold) will not be worth much when everyone realizes that China controls the bulk of the gold in the world and they chose not to honor all the ETF agreements under the original terms.

If you own stocks, I would get out of any financial stocks, tech stocks, or big U.S. companies.  I would move toward hard assets like land and property, stocks in food companies, oil companies than have oil reserves preferably priced in something besides dollars (the value will remain even if the dollar collapses but it could take some time to get revalued), perhaps utilities, railroad stocks (Buffet knows), and similar.   Keep away from military equipment suppliers (we won’t be able to afford flushing money down our Military Industrial Complex) and airlines (travel has to collapse).

 

Good luck,  Americans.  I hope I am wrong on this one and that all these pieces of the puzzle can be put together another way that what I just did with them.  But, all the pieces are in place for the U.S. to lose its position as the owner of the world currency … and we are just not in good enough shape financially or any other way to stand on our own feet right now without owning the world’s de facto currency.  

If we only had a congress that did long term planning like the communist party of China … if the people only had a congress period ...